SINOLOGIX

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Economic, Tech and Political Analysis

Objective reporting...

Objective reporting...

...alternative perspectives

...alternative perspectives

Independent Research

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SINOLOGIX provides economic, technological, and political analysis of the People’s Republic of China and its burgeoning portfolio of partners in the so-called Global South. We strive to offer objective, independent research – and while objective doesn’t necessarily preclude an editorial point-of-view, we endeavor to provide a balanced perspective so that our readers can better understand the opportunities, risks, and challenges when engaging China and its collective partners. To that end, we publish content from contributing subject matter experts, even if we do not necessarily endorse their points of view.

www.sinologix.io
info@sinologix.io
2023-01-05

NOTE – our readers may have observed a shift in our focus on all things Chinese to a more expansive scope as we incorporate conflicts in the Mideast and Central Asia, we as economic and political developments related to the so-called Global South – China is rapidly emerging as an influential leader in regions where the US and its allies once dominated without challenge. China’s emergence as a superpower equal to the US is perhaps best observed in the context of global events.

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Our Mission

Objective Analysis

SINOLOGIX is committed to providing objective and unbiased analysis and reporting on economic, political, and technological trends and news for mainland China. Because of the myriad interdependencies between China, the US, Russia and other countries, we’ve expanded the scope of our analysis to include adjacent topics relevant to a complete understanding of China.

Most of the reporting by western media and analysts on China is heavily biased and often paints a distorted picture of an autocratic, communist regime with bleak prospects for its citizens. While this may perpetuate the political objectives of the governments to whom such media and analysts are beholden, it does little to further an accurate understanding of the Chinese government or its people. In our view, such reporting and analysis only creates blinders that impede effective foreign policy and market strategies for governments and commercial entities alike – the notion that US and western governments are fundamentally benevolent and benign, while Central and East Asian powers (read, Russia and China) are inherently malevolent is a flawed starting point for understanding and interacting with our trading partners in these regions.

Acknowledging Success

No country or socio-political-economic system is perfect, nor is it static. Whatever criticisms can be leveled at China, and there are many, “socialism with Chinese characteristics” has enjoyed unprecedented success – since 1950, the Chinese middle class has grown from a mere 3% of its population of 552 million people (1950) to more than 50% of its population of 1.4 billion people (2021).

Economists are now seriously evaluating the merits of a single-party system that is not hindered by the constraints of western political models. A theme that permeates much of our analysis is the CCP’s ability to implement strategic programs that span 30-40 years, as well as a hybrid economic model that embraces both central planning and free-market dynamics.

Acknowledging the Price of Success

Nevertheless, this success has not been achieved without a substantial price – many economists would argue that China imported western pollution to achieve its remarkable economic growth. Environmental and energy policy is therefore a critical piece of our analysis.

Similarly, human rights and other social concerns are factors that  must be considered when evaluating the overall success of the Chinese system. However, we would argue that an objective analysis of this topic would reveal a more nuanced story than is typically portrayed in western media.

Objective Doesn't Mean Unopinionated

Finally, “unbiased and objective” doesn’t mean unopinionated – in all of our analysis, we offer our own perspective on the topic at hand. But we clearly separate the facts from any editorial commentary.

We also periodically publish third-party analysis and editorials by subject matter experts. We may agree or not with their respective points of view, but we will continue to publish their work if we feel their content adds to a balanced understanding of China and its regional neighbors.

Our objective is to provide our readers with a 360-degree view of the political, economic, and technological aspects of modern China that will contribute to the success, or failure, of “socialism with Chinese characteristics”. Along the way, we hope to contribute to a more complete and accurate understanding of our Asian counterparts, so that we can more effectively cooperate and compete on the global stage.

Notes

References and Disclaimers

Third-Party Contributors

From time to time, SINOLOGIX offers third-party content that complements our core focus. The authors we endorse are subject matter experts and thought leaders in their respective fields. We strive to offer a diverse range of perspectives on any given topic and these contributors help us achieve that objective.

Works Cited

None

Related Research and Articles

China’s Coal Sector – Part 1 – The 800 Pound Gorilla

China is both the world’s largest producer of greenhouse gas emissions (GGEs) and the world’s largest producer of renewable energy. From a climate change perspective, China is the 800-pound gorilla in the room – no matter what the rest of the world does in terms of GGEs, as China goes, so goes planet Earth. If China fails to reign in GGEs, catastrophic climate change may be inevitable.

Retrieval Augmented Generation

Work in Progress...!

PLEASE NOTE – We’re in the process of developing a full Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) component that will tap into a database of economic, tech trends and other data associated with our research reports. This initial prototype includes content that we’ve already published in the form of text articles, but we’ll soon be adding structured content that will enable in-depth analysis not generally available through public chat apps.

Retrieval Augment Generation refers to generative AI that is supplemented with proprietary structured data, text, images, audio and video content that we have curated from our research.

Thanks for your patience! This initial prototype will soon be replaced with a more advanced UI capable of generating complete multi-modal reports. Please bear with us – this prototype is text and speech only.

Other Data Insights

"Things change gradually at first...

...then all at once..."

China GDP vs UST Holdings (2010-22) (billions)

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China GDP vs UST Holdings (2010-22) (billions)

Data Source – World Bank

Global FX Exchange Reserves (2001-22) (% of total)

(click/tap legend to filter data)
Global FX Exchange Reserves (2001-22) (% of total)

Data Source – World Bank

Global FX Exchange Reserves (2001-22) (% of total)

(click/tap legend to filter data)
Global FX Exchange Reserves (2001-22) (% of total)

Data Source – World Bank

Western media is starting to pay attention to China’s efforts to influence members of the so-called Global South, or more specifically the BRICS+ and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (with substantially overlapping membership), to denominate international trade in the Chinese Renminbi (RMB), aks the Chinese Yuan (CNY) and/or other local currencies. For very different reasons, Russia has promoted the idea of an entirely new currency for trade settlement. This is an accelerating trend among countries that have formed close economic and political relationships with China.

Coincident with the pivot to the RMB for trade settlement is a growing sentiment among the BRICS+ and SCO members that holding USD as their primary reserve currency poses a risk in the event the US declares sanctions and/or freezes a country’s assets, as happened with Russia and Belarus in 2022.  

The combined effect of these two trends should be observable in a country’s US Treasuries holdings, and that’s exactly what we’re seeing in the chart above – China’s USD and Treasuries holdings peaked at $1.277 trillion in 2013 and declined by more than 32% in 2022.

Things change “slowly at first, then all at once”...

Related Posts

China and De-dollarization – Part 1 – Overview

The so-called “de-dollarization” phenomenon is really a reflection of China’s ascendancy to superpower status – there can be no question it is the main driver behind the emergence of increasingly powerful inter-regional economic organizations, innovative trade agreements that circumvent the USD’s role as the world’s primary currency for trade settlement, and conceivably, the demise of the USD as the world’s de facto reserve currency. In this Part 1, we summarize the key factors that might trigger a future change in currency usage by China and its trading partners.

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Newsfeeds

International and APAC

Sino-Brazil Leadership Summit – 2023

While not as closely watched as the recent summit in Moscow, where President Xi tacitly threw his weight behind Russia and its SMO in Ukraine, Brazil’s newly (re)elected President Lula da Silva’s recent state visit to China was in many respects much more significant, as it further pulls the US’ most powerful Latin American ally away from its sphere of influence and into China’s orbit.

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While China is a driving force in the Global South’s pivot away from the USD, the rapid expansion of inter-regional economic organizations made up of Asian, Central Asian, Middle East, African and Latin American countries has accelerated the shift in political and economic power that threatens to upend more than 70 years of US dominance on the world stage.

China and De-dollarization – Part 1 – Overview

The so-called “de-dollarization” phenomenon is really a reflection of China’s ascendancy to superpower status – there can be no question it is the main driver behind the emergence of increasingly powerful inter-regional economic organizations, innovative trade agreements that circumvent the USD’s role as the world’s primary currency for trade settlement, and conceivably, the demise of the USD as the world’s de facto reserve currency. In this Part 1, we summarize the key factors that might trigger a future change in currency usage by China and its trading partners.

Pivotal Xi-Putin Summit in Moscow

On March 22, China’s President Xi Jinping concluded a very visible state visit to Moscow, where he met for three days of discussions with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin on a number of topics of interest not only to both China and Russia, but the US and its EU allies as well.

China’s Ascendant Diplomacy – Saudi-Iran Agreement

In a historic turn of events, China has successfully brokered a groundbreaking agreement between long-standing rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran, marking a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. The agreement, which focuses on reestablishing diplomatic ties, ending proxy conflicts, and enhancing economic cooperation, highlights China’s growing influence in the region and its expanding role as a global power.

2023-01-22 – China Q4 GDP Beats Estimates

The last few weeks have seen remarkable changes in China – the (reported) COVID numbers have stabilized and even declined in some provinces, 2022 Q4 GDP numbers (vastly) exceeded analysts’ expectations, a projected 5.2% GDP growth target for 2023 is driving demand for oil, and the latest Bureau of Statistics reports confirm a population decline. A lot to digest…

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Due to the recent COVID outbreak in the downtown Puxi District, the Shanghai office is closed to outside visitors. Please feel free to contact us via email or phone to schedule an online meeting.

NOTICES

PRC COVID Restrictions

Due to the recent COVID outbreak in the downtown Puxi District, the Shanghai office is closed to outside visitors. Please feel free to contact us via email or phone to schedule an online meeting.

Due to the recent COVID outbreak in the downtown Puxi District, the Shanghai office is closed to outside visitors. Please feel free to contact us via email or phone to schedule an online meeting.

CONTACT INFO

US and Americas

APAC

FAVORITE SPOTS...🙂

上海茶馆

Chinese Tea House
Photo - Oriento Gi