SINOLOGIX

News Research Analysis

Commentary

Subject matter experts...

Subject matter experts...

...global perspectives

...global perspectives

Independent Research

Sub Heading

Image of Microphone
Image - Shutterstock / Anya PL
(tap image to expand)

SINOLOGIX provides economic, technological, and political analysis of the People’s Republic of China and its burgeoning portfolio of partners in the so-called Global South. We strive to offer objective, independent research – and while objective doesn’t necessarily preclude an editorial point-of-view, we endeavor to provide a balanced perspective so that our readers can better understand the opportunities, risks, and challenges when engaging China and its collective partners. To that end, we publish content from contributing subject matter experts, even if we do not necessarily endorse their points of view.

www.sinologix.io
info@sinologix.io
2022-09-08

NOTE – our readers may have observed a shift in our focus on all things Chinese to a more expansive scope as we incorporate conflicts in the Mideast and Central Asia, we as economic and political developments related to the so-called Global South – China is rapidly emerging as an influential leader in regions where the US and its allies once dominated without challenge. China’s emergence as a superpower equal to the US is perhaps best observed in the context of global events.

PAG TITLE HERE

ARTICLES

News

Featured news, and weekly summaries on mainland China, APAC, and Central Asia by SINOLOGIX staff and contributing subject matter experts.

Report Filters

Report Topic
Country
Post Date
Post Date
Chinese Soldiers on Parade
China Has Thrown Out the Old Rules of War…

An excerpt from Retired Air Force Brigadier General Robert Spalding’s “War Without Rules: Inside China’s Playbook for Global Domination” – an excellent analysis of “Unrestricted Warfare” by Qiao Liang (乔良) and Wang Xiangsui (王湘穗).

READ MORE
Map of Ukraine
Ukraine War – Causes, Consequences

In less than six months, the Russo-Ukrainian War has degenerated into one of the most devastating conflicts in modern history – how is it possible that this debacle was allowed to happen? Without an understanding of the conflict’s true cause, it will be difficult, if not impossible, to negotiate a settlement that is acceptable not only to Russia and Ukraine but also to the many secondary parties that are using them as proxies, including the US and NATO. While China has officially maintained a neutral position on the Ukrainian conflict, it clearly has a vested interest in the outcome, particularly as it pertains to the Taiwan question.

READ MORE
Photo of Xi Jin Ping
Xi Of Arabia and The PetroYuan Drive

Pepe Escobar provides an interesting take on the historic Sino-Saudi and Sino-GCC summits that took place this last December. His ability to place these meetings in a broader geopolitical and geoeconomic context makes this report a worthwhile read – above and beyond the multi-billion-dollar trade agreements that were inked in December, “Xi of Arabia” is now on the forefront of a massive pivot away from the petrodollar to the internationalized use of China’s renminbi (yuan).

READ MORE
Image of US and Russian Flags
Unintended Consequences of US Foreign Policy in Ukraine

As has happened so often with ill-advised US foreign policy in the recent past, the law of unintended consequences has prevailed in the Russo-Ukrainian War – not only have the sanctions failed spectacularly but the inability of the US to orchestrate a cohesive effort to force Putin’s hand in Ukraine suggests that the global balance of power is shifting.

READ MORE
Map of Eurasian Economic Union
Global South Spawns Game Changing Payments System

Challenging the western monetary system, the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU) is leading the Global South toward a new common payment system that bypasses the USD…in this report, Pepe Escobar discusses recent progress toward a non-USD based trading system and the impact of such a system on the global economy.

READ MORE

No Posts Found (please try a different filter)

Data Insights - Debt to GDP Ratios

Radically Different Debt Profiles

The contrast between the debt-to-GDP ratio for China andrussia vs. Japan and the US is yet another stark reminder that economic power is shifting away from the traditional g7 countires to the BRICS – notwithstanding questions regarding the accuracy of China’s numbers, it should be clear that both China and Russia are ina  much stronger position to continue their economic growth, while both japan and the US have maxed out their credit cards.

In 2022, the US government will pay $305B in interest (to service the national debt) – roughly 5% of the total federal budget. By 2030, that number is expected to grow to $829B, or roughly 10.6% of the total federal budget. Note – this estimate was calculated before the 2022 adjustments to the Fed funds target rate.

Japan and the US are going to find it increasingly diffiuclt to find buyers for JGB and US Treasuries – and that is going to have a profound impact on the value of their respective currencies. China and Russia, on the other hand, have initiated two initiatives that will further erode the US control of global trade – commodity-based currencies and trade settlement using a basket of currencies (other than the USD).

(swipe left on column 2 to scroll)

Data Source – World Bank

Comparative Analysis - PRC and Russia vs. US and Japan

(click/tap legend to filter data)
Debt to GDP Ratios for 6 MDC's (2021)

Data Source – World Bank

Data Insights - GDP Growth

PRC - Selected Developed Countries

(hover chart to view data)

Data Source – World Bank

Retrieval Augmented Generation

Work in Progress...!

PLEASE NOTE – We’re in the process of developing a full Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) component that will tap into a database of economic, tech trends and other data associated with our research reports. This initial prototype includes content that we’ve already published in the form of text articles, but we’ll soon be adding structured content that will enable in-depth analysis not generally available through public chat apps.

Retrieval Augment Generation refers to generative AI that is supplemented with proprietary structured data, text, images, audio and video content that we have curated from our research.

Thanks for your patience! This initial prototype will soon be replaced with a more advanced UI capable of generating complete multi-modal reports. Please bear with us – this prototype is text and speech only.

Other Data Insights

"Things change gradually at first...

...then all at once..."

China GDP vs UST Holdings (2010-22) (billions)

(click/tap legend to filter data)
China GDP vs UST Holdings (2010-22) (billions)

Data Source – World Bank

Global FX Exchange Reserves (2001-22) (% of total)

(click/tap legend to filter data)
Global FX Exchange Reserves (2001-22) (% of total)

Data Source – World Bank

Global FX Exchange Reserves (2001-22) (% of total)

(click/tap legend to filter data)
Global FX Exchange Reserves (2001-22) (% of total)

Data Source – World Bank

Western media is starting to pay attention to China’s efforts to influence members of the so-called Global South, or more specifically the BRICS+ and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (with substantially overlapping membership), to denominate international trade in the Chinese Renminbi (RMB), aks the Chinese Yuan (CNY) and/or other local currencies. For very different reasons, Russia has promoted the idea of an entirely new currency for trade settlement. This is an accelerating trend among countries that have formed close economic and political relationships with China.

Coincident with the pivot to the RMB for trade settlement is a growing sentiment among the BRICS+ and SCO members that holding USD as their primary reserve currency poses a risk in the event the US declares sanctions and/or freezes a country’s assets, as happened with Russia and Belarus in 2022.  

The combined effect of these two trends should be observable in a country’s US Treasuries holdings, and that’s exactly what we’re seeing in the chart above – China’s USD and Treasuries holdings peaked at $1.277 trillion in 2013 and declined by more than 32% in 2022.

Things change “slowly at first, then all at once”...

Related Posts

China and De-dollarization – Part 1 – Overview

The so-called “de-dollarization” phenomenon is really a reflection of China’s ascendancy to superpower status – there can be no question it is the main driver behind the emergence of increasingly powerful inter-regional economic organizations, innovative trade agreements that circumvent the USD’s role as the world’s primary currency for trade settlement, and conceivably, the demise of the USD as the world’s de facto reserve currency. In this Part 1, we summarize the key factors that might trigger a future change in currency usage by China and its trading partners.

Chart - Sub Heading - H3

(click/tap legend to filter data)
Chart Title - Sub Heading - H6

Style too own civil out along. Perfectly offending attempted add arranging age gentleman concluded. Get who uncommonly our expression ten increasing considered occasional travelling. Ever read tell year give may men call its. Piqued son turned fat income played end wicket. To do noisy downs round an happy books. Ought these are balls place mrs their times add she. Taken no great widow spoke of it small. Genius use except son esteem merely her limits. Sons park by do make on. It do oh cottage offered cottage in written. Especially of dissimilar up attachment themselves by interested boisterous. Linen mrs seems men table. Jennings dashwood to quitting marriage bachelor in. On as conviction in of appearance apartments boisterous.

Newsfeeds

International and APAC

Sino-Brazil Leadership Summit – 2023

While not as closely watched as the recent summit in Moscow, where President Xi tacitly threw his weight behind Russia and its SMO in Ukraine, Brazil’s newly (re)elected President Lula da Silva’s recent state visit to China was in many respects much more significant, as it further pulls the US’ most powerful Latin American ally away from its sphere of influence and into China’s orbit.

China and De-dollarization – Part 2 – BRICS and SCO

While China is a driving force in the Global South’s pivot away from the USD, the rapid expansion of inter-regional economic organizations made up of Asian, Central Asian, Middle East, African and Latin American countries has accelerated the shift in political and economic power that threatens to upend more than 70 years of US dominance on the world stage.

China and De-dollarization – Part 1 – Overview

The so-called “de-dollarization” phenomenon is really a reflection of China’s ascendancy to superpower status – there can be no question it is the main driver behind the emergence of increasingly powerful inter-regional economic organizations, innovative trade agreements that circumvent the USD’s role as the world’s primary currency for trade settlement, and conceivably, the demise of the USD as the world’s de facto reserve currency. In this Part 1, we summarize the key factors that might trigger a future change in currency usage by China and its trading partners.

Pivotal Xi-Putin Summit in Moscow

On March 22, China’s President Xi Jinping concluded a very visible state visit to Moscow, where he met for three days of discussions with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin on a number of topics of interest not only to both China and Russia, but the US and its EU allies as well.

China’s Ascendant Diplomacy – Saudi-Iran Agreement

In a historic turn of events, China has successfully brokered a groundbreaking agreement between long-standing rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran, marking a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. The agreement, which focuses on reestablishing diplomatic ties, ending proxy conflicts, and enhancing economic cooperation, highlights China’s growing influence in the region and its expanding role as a global power.

2023-01-22 – China Q4 GDP Beats Estimates

The last few weeks have seen remarkable changes in China – the (reported) COVID numbers have stabilized and even declined in some provinces, 2022 Q4 GDP numbers (vastly) exceeded analysts’ expectations, a projected 5.2% GDP growth target for 2023 is driving demand for oil, and the latest Bureau of Statistics reports confirm a population decline. A lot to digest…

SEND US A NOTE...

Contact Form

Privacy Notice

We will only use the information in this message to communicate with you (if you requested a response) – we never spam! All information you send us will be completely confidential and will not be shared with any third-party. 

We will only use the information in this message to communicate with you (if you requested a response) – we never spam! All information you send us will be completely confidential and will not be shared with any third-party. 

NOTICES

PRC COVID Restrictions

The Shanghai office is currently closed to outside visitors. Please feel free to contact us via email or phone to schedule an online meeting.

The Shanghai office is currently closed to outside visitors. Please feel free to contact us via email or phone to schedule an online meeting.

CONTACT INFO

US and Americas

APAC

FAVORITE SPOTS...🙂

上海茶馆

Chinese Tea House
Photo - Oriento Gi

NOTICES

PRC COVID Restrictions

Due to the recent COVID outbreak in the downtown Puxi District, the Shanghai office is closed to outside visitors. Please feel free to contact us via email or phone to schedule an online meeting.

Due to the recent COVID outbreak in the downtown Puxi District, the Shanghai office is closed to outside visitors. Please feel free to contact us via email or phone to schedule an online meeting.

NOTICES

PRC COVID Restrictions

Due to the recent COVID outbreak in the downtown Puxi District, the Shanghai office is closed to outside visitors. Please feel free to contact us via email or phone to schedule an online meeting.

Due to the recent COVID outbreak in the downtown Puxi District, the Shanghai office is closed to outside visitors. Please feel free to contact us via email or phone to schedule an online meeting.

CONTACT INFO

US and Americas

APAC

FAVORITE SPOTS...🙂

上海茶馆

Chinese Tea House
Photo - Oriento Gi

WORK IN PROGRESS

Pardon Us!

This page has been published with content that is still a work-in-progress. We thought you might be interested in viewing an early release, even though it’s not a final product. Thanks for your patience…

This page has been published with content that is still a work-in-progress. We thought you might be interested in viewing an early release, even though it’s not a final product. Thanks for your patience…